Improved Z-number and fault tree analysis to predict the risk of air pollution due to ship boiler operation.

Autor: Sezer SI; Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Iskenderun Technical University, Iskenderun 31200, Hatay, Türkiye. Electronic address: ilkesezer@gmail.com., Ceylan BO; Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Bandirma Onyedi Eylül University, Bandirma 10200, Balikesir, Türkiye., Akyuz E; Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Türkiye., Gardoni P; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Marine pollution bulletin [Mar Pollut Bull] 2024 Sep; Vol. 206, pp. 116801. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Aug 07.
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116801
Abstrakt: Ships present a significant source of air pollution, contributing to environmental degradation and posing health risks. Boilers are a significant part of the vessels in which the water is heated to evaporate and generate steam. The boilers emit pollutants such as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), particle pollution, and volatile organic compounds (VOC). This paper conducts an extended risk analysis for air pollution due to boiler operation on ships. An improved Z-numbers theory and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are adopted to predict risk. Whilst improved Z-number theory is capable of handling uncertainties inherent in risk assessment, the FTA presents systematically the causal relationships among various factors contributing to the risk of air pollution on ships. The findings show that the failure probability of air pollution during ship boiler operation is 2.08E-05 and BE-12 is the most significant event. Results provide valuable data to maritime stakeholders in fostering environmentally sustainable practices.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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