| Abstrakt: |
The early identification of an individual's dementia risk is crucial for disease prevention and the design of insurance products in an aging society. This study aims to accurately predict the future incidence risk of dementia in individuals by leveraging the advantages of neural networks. This is, however, complicated by the high dimensionality and sparsity of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes when utilizing data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance, which includes individual profiles and medical records. Inspired by the click-through rate (CTR) problem in recommendation systems, where future user behavior is predicted based on their past consumption records, we address these challenges with a multimodal attention network for dementia (MAND), which incorporates an ICD code embedding layer and multihead self-attention to encode ICD codes and capture interactions among diseases. Additionally, we investigate the applicability of several CTR methods to the dementia prediction problem. MAND achieves an AUC of 0.9010, surpassing traditional CTR models and demonstrating its effectiveness. The highly flexible pipelined design allows for module replacement to meet specific requirements. Furthermore, the analysis of attention scores reveals diseases highly correlated with dementia, aligning with prior research and emphasizing the interpretability of the model. This research deepens our understanding of the diseases associated with dementia, and the accurate prediction provided can serve as an early warning for dementia occurrence, aiding in its prevention. |
