Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak.

Autor: Kaftan D; NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA., Kim HY; NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA., Ko C; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA., Howard JS; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA., Dalal P; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA., Yamamoto N; NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA., Braithwaite RS; NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA., Bershteyn A; NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of medical virology [J Med Virol] 2024 Aug; Vol. 96 (8), pp. e29791.
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29791
Abstrakt: In mid-2022, New York City (NYC) became the epicenter of the US mpox outbreak. We provided real-time mpox case forecasts to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to aid in outbreak response. Forecasting methodologies evolved as the epidemic progressed. Initially, lacking knowledge of at-risk population size, we used exponential growth models to forecast cases. Once exponential growth slowed, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Retrospectively, we explored if forecasts could have been improved using an SEIR model in place of our early exponential growth model, with or without knowing the case detection rate. Early forecasts from exponential growth models performed poorly, as 2-week mean absolute error (MAE) grew from 53 cases/week (July 1-14) to 457 cases/week (July 15-28). However, when exponential growth slowed, providing insight into susceptible population size, an SEIR model was able to accurately predict the remainder of the outbreak (7-week MAE: 13.4 cases/week). Retrospectively, we found there was not enough known about the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak to parameterize an SEIR model early on. However, if the at-risk population and case detection rate were known, an SEIR model could have improved accuracy over exponential growth models early in the outbreak.
(© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Medical Virology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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