Using the near real-time effective reproduction number rt as an early-warning tool for seasonal bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics.

Autor:	Gallien Y; Santé publique France Ile-de-France., Paireau J; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France.; Direction des Maladies Infectieuses, Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France., Paty AC; Santé publique France Ile-de-France., Villegas-Ramirez B; Santé publique France Ile-de-France., Hamidouche M; Santé publique France Ile-de-France., Modenesi G; Santé publique France Ile-de-France., Zhu-Soubise A, Bonaldi C; Santé Publique France en Île-de-France, Direction des régions, Agence régionale Île-de-France, rue du Landy, Saint-Denis, France., Fouillet A; Santé Publique France en Île-de-France, Direction des régions, Agence régionale Île-de-France, rue du Landy, Saint-Denis, France., Vaux S; Santé Publique France en Île-de-France, Direction des régions, Agence régionale Île-de-France, rue du Landy, Saint-Denis, France., Bernard-Stoecklin S; Santé Publique France en Île-de-France, Direction des régions, Agence régionale Île-de-France, rue du Landy, Saint-Denis, France., Tarantola A; Santé Publique France en Île-de-France, Direction des régions, Agence régionale Île-de-France, rue du Landy, Saint-Denis, France.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	American journal of epidemiology [Am J Epidemiol] 2024 Jul 30. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 30.
DOI:	10.1093/aje/kwae195
Abstrakt:	Background: Yearly bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics in France often involve high morbidity and mortality, which severely impacts healthcare. Epidemics are declared by the French National Institute of Public Health based on syndromic surveillance of primary care and emergency departments (ED), using statistics-based alarms. Although the effective reproduction number (Rt) is used to monitor the dynamics of epidemics, it has never been used as an early warning tool for bronchiolitis or influenza-like illness epidemics in France.We assessed whether Rt is useful for detecting seasonal epidemics by comparing it to the tool currently used (MASS) by epidemiologists to declare epidemic phases. Methods: We used anonymized ED syndromic data from the Île-de-France region in France from 2010 to 2022. We estimated Rt and compared the indication of accelerated transmission (Rt >1) to the MASS epidemic alarm time points. We computed the difference between those two time points, time to epidemic peak, and the daily cases documented at first indication and peak. Results: Rt provided alarms for influenza-like illness and bronchiolitis epidemics that were, respectively, 6 days (IQR[4;8]) and 64 days (IQR[52;80]) - in median - earlier than the alarms provided by MASS. Conclusion: Rt detected earlier signals of bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics. Using this early-warning indicator in combination with others to declare an annual epidemic could provide opportunities to improve healthcare system readiness. (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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