| Autor: |
Mello JHF; Department of Ecology, Institute of Biology, Rio de Janeiro Federal University (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21941-902, Brazil.; Knowledge Center for Biodiversity, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, MG, Brazil., Muylaert RL; Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science-Tāwharau Ora, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand., Grelle CEV; Department of Ecology, Institute of Biology, Rio de Janeiro Federal University (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21941-902, Brazil.; Knowledge Center for Biodiversity, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, MG, Brazil. |
| Abstrakt: |
Hantaviruses are zoonotic agents responsible for causing Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas, with Brazil ranking first in number of confirmed HCPS cases in South America. In this study, we simulate the monthly spread of highly lethal hantavirus in natural hosts by conjugating a Kermack-McCormick SIR model with a cellular automata model (CA), therefore simultaneously evaluating both in-cell and between-cell infection dynamics in host populations, using recently compiled data on main host species abundances and confirmed deaths by hantavirus infection. For both host species, our models predict an increase in the area of infection, with 22 municipalities where no cases have been confirmed to date expected to have at least one case in the next decade, and a reduction in infection in 11 municipalities. Our findings support existing research and reveal new areas where hantavirus is likely to spread within recognized epicenters. Highlighting spatial-temporal trends and potential expansion, we emphasize the increased risk due to pervasive habitat fragmentation and agricultural expansion. Consistent prevention efforts and One Health actions are crucial, especially in newly identified high-risk municipalities. |
