Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness.

Autor: Austin MW; Herbarium, Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA.; Living Earth Collaborative, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO, 63130, USA., Smith AB; Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA., Olsen KM; Department of Biology, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO, 63130, USA., Hoch PC; Herbarium, Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA., Krakos KN; Department of Biology, Maryville University in Saint Louis, St Louis, MO, 63141, USA.; Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA., Schmocker SP; Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA.; Department of Biological Sciences, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44240, USA., Miller-Struttmann NE; Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, 63110, USA.; Department of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Webster University, St Louis, MO, 63119, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The New phytologist [New Phytol] 2024 Sep; Vol. 243 (6), pp. 2486-2500. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 24.
DOI: 10.1111/nph.19994
Abstrakt: Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly). We combined long-term field (1937-2012) and herbarium records (1850-2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co-flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends. Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co-flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration. Our results demonstrate that species-level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co-flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season-dependent.
(© 2024 The Author(s). New Phytologist © 2024 New Phytologist Foundation.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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