Current and lagged associations of meteorological variables and Aedes mosquito indices with dengue incidence in the Philippines.

Autor: Cruz EI; Department of Medical Entomology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Filinvest Corporate City, Alabang, Muntinlupa City, Philippines., Salazar FV; Department of Medical Entomology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Filinvest Corporate City, Alabang, Muntinlupa City, Philippines., Aguila AMA; Department of Medical Entomology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Filinvest Corporate City, Alabang, Muntinlupa City, Philippines., Villaruel-Jagmis MV; Department of Medical Entomology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Filinvest Corporate City, Alabang, Muntinlupa City, Philippines., Ramos J; Department of Medical Entomology, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Filinvest Corporate City, Alabang, Muntinlupa City, Philippines., Paul RE; Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris-Cité, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UMR 2000, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (INRAE) USC 1510, Paris, France.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2024 Jul 23; Vol. 18 (7), pp. e0011603. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 23 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011603
Abstrakt: Background: Dengue is an increasing health burden that has spread throughout the tropics and sub-tropics. There is currently no effective vaccine and control is only possible through integrated vector management. Early warning systems (EWS) to alert potential dengue outbreaks are currently being explored but despite showing promise are yet to come to fruition. This study addresses the association of meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue incidences and assesses the added value of additionally using mosquito indices for predicting dengue incidences.
Methodology/principal Findings: Entomological surveys were carried out monthly for 14 months in six sites spread across three environmentally different cities of the Philippines. Meteorological and dengue data were acquired. Non-linear generalized additive models were fitted to test associations of the meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue cases. Rain and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) contributed most to explaining the variation in both mosquito indices and number of dengue cases. DTR and minimum temperature also explained variation in dengue cases occurring one and two months later and may offer potentially useful variables for an EWS. The number of adult mosquitoes did associate with the number of dengue cases, but contributed no additional value to meteorological variables for explaining variation in dengue cases.
Conclusions/significance: The use of meteorological variables to predict future risk of dengue holds promise. The lack of added value of using mosquito indices confirms several previous studies and given the onerous nature of obtaining such information, more effort should be placed on improving meteorological information at a finer scale to evaluate efficacy in early warning of dengue outbreaks.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Cruz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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