Current and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to increasing temperature in Australia: a population-based study.

Autor:	Damtew YT; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.; College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia., Varghese BM; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia., Anikeeva O; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia., Tong M; National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Hansen A; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia., Dear K; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia., Zhang Y; School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia., Morgan G; School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia., Driscoll T; School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia., Capon T; Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia., Gourley M; Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Prescott V; Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Bi P; School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific [Lancet Reg Health West Pac] 2024 Jun 28; Vol. 48, pp. 101124. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 28 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101124
Abstrakt:	Background: Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change. Methods: As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series. Findings: During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively. Interpretation: These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program. Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. (© 2024 The Authors.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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