A stochastic modeling study of quarantine strategies against foot-and-mouth disease risks through cattle trades across the Thailand-Myanmar border.

Autor: Wongnak P; Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Marcy l'Etoile, France; Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France., Yano T; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand., Sekiguchi S; Department of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Japan; Center for Animal Disease Control, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Japan., Chalvet-Monfray K; Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Marcy l'Etoile, France; Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France., Premashthira S; Department of Livestock Development (DLD), Bangkok, Thailand., Thanapongtharm W; Department of Livestock Development (DLD), Bangkok, Thailand., Wiratsudakul A; Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, and the Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. Electronic address: anuwat.wir@mahidol.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Preventive veterinary medicine [Prev Vet Med] 2024 Sep; Vol. 230, pp. 106282. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 10.
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106282
Abstrakt: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important endemic disease in livestock in Southeast Asia. Transboundary movement of animals may result in the transnational disease spread. A major cattle market is located at the Thailand-Myanmar border, where most cattle imported from Myanmar are traded. In this study, we built a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the effectiveness of a private animal quarantine service center in preventing FMDV from entering the major cattle market. We computed with different parameters and found that, with 50 % vaccine effectiveness, the risk of releasing infected cattle to the market per batch was generally low during the quarantine period of 21 and 28 days, with the risk ranging from 0.071 to 0.078 and 0.032 to 0.036, respectively. Despite the best scenario, the zero-risk state is difficult to attain. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the percentage of immune animals before entering the quarantine centers and the vaccine effectiveness are important factors. In conclusion, the 21-day quarantine period mitigates the risk of FMDV introduction into the cattle market. This control measure should be rigorously maintained to sustainably prevent FMDV outbreaks through transboundary animal movements, especially among countries in FMD-endemic regions.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None.
(Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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