Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis.

Autor: Gizaw Z; Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 5C8, Canada; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada., Salubi E; Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 5C8, Canada., Pietroniro A; Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, 622 Collegiate Pl NW, Calgary, Alberta, T2N 4V8, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada., Schuster-Wallace CJ; Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 5C8, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Electronic address: cschuster.wallace@usask.ca.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Acta tropica [Acta Trop] 2024 Oct; Vol. 258, pp. 107324. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 14.
DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107324
Abstrakt: Mosquito-borne diseases are a known tropical phenomenon. This review was conducted to assess the mecha-nisms through which climate change impacts mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions. Articles were searched from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Identification criteria were scope (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), region (temperate), article type (peer-reviewed), publication language (English), and publication years (since 2015). The WWH (who, what, how) framework was applied to develop the research question and thematic analyses identified the mechanisms through which climate change affects mosquito-borne diseases. While temperature ranges for disease transmission vary per mosquito species, all are viable for temperate regions, particularly given projected temperature increases. Zika, chikungunya, and dengue transmission occurs between 18-34 °C (peak at 26-29 °C). West Nile virus establishment occurs at monthly average temperatures between 14-34.3 °C (peak at 23.7-25 °C). Malaria establishment occurs when the consecutive average daily temperatures are above 16 °C until the sum is above 210 °C. The identified mechanisms through which climate change affects the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions include: changes in the development of vectors and pathogens; changes in mosquito habitats; extended transmission seasons; changes in geographic spread; changes in abundance and behaviors of hosts; reduced abundance of mosquito predators; interruptions to control operations; and influence on other non-climate factors. Process and stochastic approaches as well as dynamic and spatial models exist to predict mosquito population dynamics, disease transmission, and climate favorability. Future projections based on the observed relations between climate factors and mosquito-borne diseases suggest that mosquito-borne disease expansion is likely to occur in temperate regions due to climate change. While West Nile virus is already established in some temperate regions, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria are also likely to become established over time. Moving forward, more research is required to model future risks by incorporating climate, environmental, sociodemographic, and mosquito-related factors under changing climates.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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