| Autor: |
Smith DRM, Turner J, Fahr P, Attfield LA, Bessell PR, Donnelly CA, Gibb R, Jones KE, Redding DW, Asogun D, Ayodeji OO, Azuogu BN, Fischer WA, Jan K, Olayinka AT, Wohl DA, Torkelson AA, Dinkel KA, Nixon EJ, Pouwels KB, Hollingsworth TD |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2024 Jun 30. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 30. |
| DOI: |
10.1101/2024.02.26.24303394 |
| Abstrakt: |
Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7M (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1M-3.4M) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over ten years in 2.0M (793.8K-3.9M) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified "endemic" districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1M ($8.2M-$39.0M) in lost DALY value and $128.2M ($67.2M-$231.9M) in societal costs (International dollars 2021). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2M DALYs within two years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease, and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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