Limited drought tolerance in the neotropical seasonally dry forest plants impairs future species richness.

Autor: Manrique-Ascencio A; Red Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico., Prieto-Torres DA; Laboratorio de Biodiversidad y Cambio Global (LABIOCG), Facultad de Estudios Superiores Iztacala, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Estado de México, Mexico.; Laboratorio Nacional CONAHCyT de Biología del Cambio Climático, CONAHCYT, INECOL, Ciudad de México, 91070, Veracruz, Mexico., Villalobos F; Red Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico.; Laboratorio Nacional CONAHCyT de Biología del Cambio Climático, CONAHCYT, INECOL, Ciudad de México, 91070, Veracruz, Mexico., Mercado Gómez J; Departamento de Biología y Química, Universidad de Sucre, Sincelejo, Sucre, Colombia., Guevara R; Red Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany) [Plant Biol (Stuttg)] 2024 Jul 05. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 05.
DOI: 10.1111/plb.13683
Abstrakt: Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems according to global climate change predictions. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the global climate change impacts on diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of whole biome-scale approaches restricts our understanding of global climate change consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We analysed the impact of global climate change on species distribution ranges, species richness, and assemblage composition (beta diversity) for 1,178 NSDF species. We used five representative plant families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) within the NSDF: Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllaceae. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future (2040-2080), considering an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. Using a resource use scores index, we related climate-induced range contractions with species' water stress tolerance. Even under a favourable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed future significant declines across those sites where mean temperature and precipitation seasonality are expected to increase. Further, changes in species range distribution in the future correlated positively with potential use of resources in Fabaceae. Results suggest that biotic heterogenization will likely be the short-term outcome at biome scale under dispersal limitations. Nonetheless, by 2080, the prevailing effect under both dispersal assumptions will be homogenization, even within floristic nuclei. This information is critical for further defining new areas worth protecting and future planning of mitigation actions for both species and the whole biome.
(© 2024 The Author(s). Plant Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of German Society for Plant Sciences, Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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