A machine learning tool for identifying patients with newly diagnosed diabetes in primary care.

Autor: Wändell P; Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden., Carlsson AC; Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden; Academic Primary Health Care Centre, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: axel.carlsson@ki.se., Wierzbicka M; Department of Emergency and Internal Medicine, Skånes University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University & Department of Internal Medicine, Skåne, Sweden., Sigurdsson K; Department of Emergency and Internal Medicine, Skånes University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University & Department of Internal Medicine, Skåne, Sweden., Ärnlöv J; Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden; School of Health and Social Studies, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden., Eriksson J; Division of Biostatistics, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden., Wachtler C; Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden., Ruge T; Department of Emergency and Internal Medicine, Skånes University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University & Department of Internal Medicine, Skåne, Sweden.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Primary care diabetes [Prim Care Diabetes] 2024 Oct; Vol. 18 (5), pp. 501-505. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 28.
DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2024.06.010
Abstrakt: Background and Aim: It is crucial to identify a diabetes diagnosis early. Create a predictive model utilizing machine learning (ML) to identify new cases of diabetes in primary health care (PHC).
Methods: A case-control study utilizing data on PHC visits for sex-, age, and PHC-matched controls. Stochastic gradient boosting was used to construct a model for predicting cases of diabetes based on diagnostic codes from PHC consultations during the year before index (diagnosis) date and number of consultations. Variable importance was estimated using the normalized relative influence (NRI) score. Risks of having diabetes were calculated using odds ratios of marginal effects (OR ME ). Four groups by age and sex were studied, age-groups 35-64 years and ≥ 65 years in men and women, respectively.
Results: The most important predictive factors were hypertension with NRI 21.4-29.7 %, and obesity 4.8-15.2 %. The NRI for other top ten diagnoses and administrative codes generally ranged 1.0-4.2 %.
Conclusions: Our data confirm the known risk patterns for predicting a new diagnosis of diabetes, and the need to test blood glucose frequently. To assess the full potential of ML for risk prediction purposes in clinical practice, future studies could include clinical data on life-style patterns, laboratory tests and prescribed medication.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest There are no conflicts of interest for any of the authors in relation to the content of the present manuscript.
(Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE