Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework.

Autor: Carlson CJ; Department of Biology, Georgetown University; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health., Garnier R; Department of Biology, Georgetown University., Tiu A; Department of Biology, Georgetown University., Luby SP; School of Medicine, Stanford University., Bansal S; Department of Biology, Georgetown University. Electronic address: shweta.bansal@georgetown.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Vaccine [Vaccine] 2024 Oct 03; Vol. 42 (23), pp. 126051. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 19.
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.06.019
Abstrakt: Multinational epidemics of emerging infectious diseases are increasingly common, due to anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems and the growing connectivity of human populations. Early and efficient vaccination can contain outbreaks and prevent mass mortality, but optimal vaccine stockpiling strategies are dependent on pathogen characteristics, reservoir ecology, and epidemic dynamics. Here, we model major regional outbreaks of Nipah virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and use these to develop a generalized framework for estimating vaccine stockpile needs based on spillover geography, spatially-heterogeneous healthcare capacity and spatially-distributed human mobility networks. Because outbreak sizes were highly skewed, we found that most outbreaks were readily contained (median stockpile estimate for MERS-CoV: 2,089 doses; Nipah: 1,882 doses), but the maximum estimated stockpile need in a highly unlikely large outbreak scenario was 2-3 orders of magnitude higher (MERS-CoV: ∼87,000 doses; Nipah ∼ 1.1 million doses). Sensitivity analysis revealed that stockpile needs were more dependent on basic epidemiological parameters (i.e., death and recovery rate) and healthcare availability than any uncertainty related to vaccine efficacy or deployment strategy. Our results highlight the value of descriptive epidemiology for real-world modeling applications, and suggest that stockpile allocation should consider ecological, epidemiological, and social dimensions of risk.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest CJC received funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, PAX Sapiens and Open Philanthropy. SB received funding from the Merck Investigator Studies Program and FluLab Foundation. The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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