| Autor: |
Gong ZJ; College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China., Lei Y; Pearl River Water Conservancy Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510640, China., Zhong LL; College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China., Wu CH; National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. |
| Abstrakt: |
We quantified the lag time of vegetation response to drought in the Pearl River basin (PRB) based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and constructed a vegetation loss probability model under drought stress based on the Bayesian theory and two-dimensional joint distribution. We further quantitatively evaluated the spatial variations of loss probability of four vegetation types (evergreen broadleaf forest, mixed forest, grassland, and cropland) under different drought intensities. The results showed that the drought risk in eastern West River, the upper reaches of North River and East River, and southern Pearl River Delta was obviously higher than that in other regions during 1982-2020. The response time of vegetation to drought in high-altitude areas in the upper reaches of PRB (mostly<3 month) was generally shorter than that in low altitude areas (>8 month). Drought exacerbated the probability of vegetation loss, with higher vulnerability of mixed forest than the other three vegetation types. The loss probability of vegetation was lower in northwestern PRB than that in central PRB. |
