A generalized risk assessment index for forecasting insect population under the effect of temperature.

Autor: Ndjomatchoua FT; Department of Plant Sciences, School of the Biological Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, United Kingdom. Electronic address: tfn21@cam.ac.uk., Guimapi RAY; Biotechnology and Plant Health Division, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), P.O. Box 115, NO-1431 Ås, Norway. Electronic address: ritter.guimapi@nibio.no., Rossini L; Service d'Automatique et d'Analyse des Systèmes, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), v. F.D. Roosvelt 50, CP 165/55, 1050, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: luca.rossini@unitus.it., Djouda BS; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaoundé 1, P.O. Box 812, Ngoa Ekelle, Yaoundé, Cameroon., Pedro SA; Departamento de Matemática e Informatica, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, 254, Maputo, Mozambique.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of thermal biology [J Therm Biol] 2024 May; Vol. 122, pp. 103886. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 11.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2024.103886
Abstrakt: Life history traits have been studied under various environmental factors, but the ability to combine them into a simple function to assess pest response to climate is still lacking complete understanding. This study proposed a risk index derived by combining development, mortality, and fertility rates from a stage-structured dynamic mathematical model. The first part presents the theoretical framework behind the risk index. The second part of the study is concerned with the application of the index in two case studies of major economic pest: the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) and the spotted wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), pests of rice crops and soft fruits, respectively. The mathematical calculations provided a single function composed of the main thermal biodemographic rates. This function has a threshold value that determines the possibility of population increase as a function of temperature. The tests carried out on the two pest species showed the capability of the index to describe the range of favourable conditions. With this approach, we were able to identify areas where pests are tolerant to climatic conditions and to project them on a geospatial risk map. The theoretical background developed here provided a tool for understanding the biogeography of Nilaparvata lugens and Drosophila suzukii. It is flexible enough to deal with mathematically simple (N. lugens) and complex (D. Suzukii) case studies of crop insect pests. It produces biologically sound indices that behave like thermal performance curves. These theoretical results also provide a reasonable basis for addressing the challenge of pest management in the context of seasonal weather variations and climate change. This may help to improve monitoring and design management strategies to limit the spread of pests in invaded areas, as some non-invaded areas may be suitable for the species to develop.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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