A shift in transitional forests of the North American boreal will persist through 2100.

Autor: Montesano PM; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA.; ADNET Systems, Inc., Bethesda, MD USA., Frost M; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA.; ASRC Federal InuTeq, Beltsville, MD USA., Li J; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA.; ASRC Federal InuTeq, Beltsville, MD USA., Carroll M; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA., Neigh CSR; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA., Macander MJ; Alaska Biological Research, Inc., Fairbanks, AK USA., Sexton JO; TerraPulse, Inc., Potomac, MD USA., Frost GV; Alaska Biological Research, Inc., Fairbanks, AK USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Communications earth & environment [Commun Earth Environ] 2024; Vol. 5 (1), pp. 290. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 31.
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01454-z
Abstrakt: High northern latitude changes with Arctic amplification across a latitudinal forest gradient suggest a shift towards an increased presence of trees and shrubs. The persistence of change may depend on the future scenarios of climate and on the current state, and site history, of forest structure. Here, we explore the persistence of a gradient-based shift in the boreal by connecting current forest patterns to recent tree cover trends and future modeled estimates of canopy height through 2100. Results show variation in the predicted potential height changes across the structural gradient from the boreal forest through the taiga-tundra ecotone. Positive potential changes in height are concentrated in transitional forests, where recent positive changes in cover prevail, while potential change in boreal forest is highly variable. Results are consistent across climate scenarios, revealing a persistent biome shift through 2100 in North America concentrated in transitional landscapes regardless of climate scenario.
Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests.
(© The Author(s) 2024.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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