Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts.

Autor: Leach NJ; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK. nicholas.leach@physics.ox.ac.uk.; Climate X Ltd., EC2N 2JA, London, UK. nicholas.leach@physics.ox.ac.uk., Roberts CD; Earth System Predictability Section, Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK., Aengenheyster M; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK.; Earth System Predictability Section, Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK., Heathcote D; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK.; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, Bristol, UK., Mitchell DM; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, Bristol, UK., Thompson V; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, Bristol, UK.; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA, De Bilt, The Netherlands., Palmer T; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK., Weisheimer A; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK.; Earth System Predictability Section, Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK.; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK., Allen MR; Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK.; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, Oxford, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 May 30; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 4530. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 30.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
Abstrakt: The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2-50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10-50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to supporting effective adaptation planning.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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