Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world.

Autor:	de Winter NJ; Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.; Archaeology, Environmental Changes and Geochemistry group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium., Tindall J; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK., Johnson ALA; School of Science, University of Derby, Derby, UK., Goudsmit-Harzevoort B; Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Texel, Netherlands.; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Wichern N; Institut für Geologie und Paläontologie, Universität Münster, Münster, Germany., Kaskes P; Archaeology, Environmental Changes and Geochemistry group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.; Laboratoire G-Time, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium., Claeys P; Archaeology, Environmental Changes and Geochemistry group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium., Huygen F; Institut für Geowissenschaften, Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany., van Leeuwen S; Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Texel, Netherlands., Metcalfe B; Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.; Laboratory of Systems and Synthetic Biology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands., Bakker P; Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands., Goolaerts S; Directorate Earth and History of Life, Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium., Wesselingh F; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands., Ziegler M; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Science advances [Sci Adv] 2024 May 17; Vol. 10 (20), pp. eadl6717. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 15.
DOI:	10.1126/sciadv.adl6717
Abstrakt:	Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe's future.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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