Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature.

Autor: Wu Y; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia., Wen B; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia., Gasparrini A; Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre On Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Armstrong B; Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Sera F; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Lavigne E; School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada., Li S; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu., Guo Y; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environment international [Environ Int] 2024 May; Vol. 187, pp. 108691. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 01.
DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691
Abstrakt: Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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