Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model.

Autor: Picinini Freitas L; Université de Montréal, École de Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada. lais.picinini.freitas@umontreal.ca.; Centre de Recherche en Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada. lais.picinini.freitas@umontreal.ca., Douwes-Schultz D; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada. dirk.douwes-schultz@mail.mcgill.ca., Schmidt AM; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada., Ávila Monsalve B; Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Faculty of Medicine, Villavicencio, 500003, Colombia., Salazar Flórez JE; Instituto Colombiano de Medicina Tropical, Universidad CES, Medellín, 055450, Colombia.; Infectious and Chronic Diseases Study Group (GEINCRO), San Martín University Foundation, Medellín, 050031, Colombia., García-Balaguera C; Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Faculty of Medicine, Villavicencio, 500003, Colombia., Restrepo BN; Instituto Colombiano de Medicina Tropical, Universidad CES, Medellín, 055450, Colombia., Jaramillo-Ramirez GI; Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Faculty of Medicine, Villavicencio, 500003, Colombia., Carabali M; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada., Zinszer K; Université de Montréal, École de Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada.; Centre de Recherche en Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 May 01; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 10003. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 01.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59976-7
Abstrakt: Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence). These probabilities were assumed to follow a series of mixed multiple logistic regressions. When Zika was present, assuming that the cases follow a negative binomial distribution, we estimated the transmission intensity rate. Our results indicate that Zika emerged/re-emerged sooner and that transmission was intensified in municipalities that were more densely populated, at lower altitudes and/or with less vegetation cover. Warmer temperatures and less weekly-accumulated rain were also associated with Zika emergence. Zika cases persisted for longer in more densely populated areas with more cases reported in the previous week. Overall, population density, elevation, and temperature were identified as the main contributors to the first Zika epidemic in Colombia. We also estimated the probability of Zika presence by municipality and week, and the results suggest that the disease circulated undetected by the surveillance system on many occasions. Our results offer insights into priority areas for public health interventions against emerging and re-emerging Aedes-borne diseases.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje