Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Autor: Pereira HM; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany.; BIOPOLIS, CIBIO/InBIO, Universidade do Porto, Vairão 4485-661, Portugal., Martins IS; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany.; Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK., Rosa IMD; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany.; Kenvue Portugal, JNTL Consumer Health Ltd, Porto Salvo 2740-262, Portugal., Kim H; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany.; UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK., Leadley P; Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette 91190, France., Popp A; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany.; Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen D-37213, Germany., van Vuuren DP; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CB, Netherlands., Hurtt G; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA., Quoss L; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany., Arneth A; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany., Baisero D; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy.; KBA Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK., Bakkenes M; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands., Chaplin-Kramer R; Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA., Chini L; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA., Di Marco M; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy., Ferrier S; CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Fujimori S; Department of Environmental Engineering, Katsura Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city 615-8540, Japan.; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan., Guerra CA; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra 3004-530, Portugal., Harfoot M; United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK., Harwood TD; CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK., Hasegawa T; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.; Ritsumeikan University, Shiga 525-8577, Japan., Haverd V; CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Havlík P; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria., Hellweg S; Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8093, Switzerland., Hilbers JP; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.; Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands., Hill SLL; United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK., Hirata A; Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan.; Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan., Hoskins AJ; CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.; James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia., Humpenöder F; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany., Janse JH; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.; Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen 6700AB, Netherlands., Jetz W; Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.; Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA., Johnson JA; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA., Krause A; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany.; Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Freising 85354, Germany., Leclère D; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria., Matsui T; Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan.; Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan., Meijer JR; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands., Merow C; Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA., Obersteiner M; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria., Ohashi H; Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan., De Palma A; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK., Poulter B; Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA., Purvis A; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK.; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK., Quesada B; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany.; 'Interactions Climate-Ecosystems (ICE)' Research Group, Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá DC 63B-48, Colombia​., Rondinini C; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome I-00185, Italy., Schipper AM; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.; Radboud University, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Nijmegen 6500 GL, Netherlands., Settele J; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany.; Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Laguna 4031, Philippines., Sharp R; Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA., Stehfest E; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands., Strassburg BBN; re.green, Rio de Janeiro 22470-060, Brazil.; Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil., Takahashi K; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan., Talluto L; Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020, Austria., Thuiller W; Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LECA, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Grenoble F-38000, France., Titeux N; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems, Halle 06210, Germany.; Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg., Visconti P; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria.; Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Observatory for Climate, Environment and Biodiversity, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg.; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London C1E6BT, UK., Ware C; CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia., Wolf F; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale) 06108, Germany., Alkemade R; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague 2500 GH, Netherlands.; Earth System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6708PB Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Science (New York, N.Y.) [Science] 2024 Apr 26; Vol. 384 (6694), pp. 458-465. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 25.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441
Abstrakt: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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