Markov chain-based impact analysis of the pandemic Covid-19 outbreak on global primary energy consumption mix.

Autor: Ahmad H; Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Management and Technology, Sialkot Campus, Sialkot, 51310, Pakistan., Liaqat R; Department of Electrical Engineering and Technology, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan., Alhussein M; Department of Computer Engineering, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, P.O.Box 51178, Riyadh, 11543, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia., Muqeet HA; Department of Electrical Engineering and Technology, Punjab Tianjin University of Technology, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan. abdul.muqeet@ptut.edu.pk., Aurangzeb K; Department of Computer Engineering, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, P.O.Box 51178, Riyadh, 11543, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia., Ashraf HM; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, 16419, South Korea.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 Apr 24; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 9449. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 24.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60125-3
Abstrakt: The historic evolution of global primary energy consumption (GPEC) mix, comprising of fossil (liquid petroleum, gaseous and coal fuels) and non-fossil (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) energy sources while highlighting the impact of the novel corona virus 2019 pandemic outbreak, has been examined through this study. GPEC data of 2005-2021 has been taken from the annually published reports by British Petroleum. The equilibrium state, a property of the classical predictive modeling based on Markov chain, is employed as an investigative tool. The pandemic outbreak has proved to be a blessing in disguise for global energy sector through, at least temporarily, reducing the burden on environment in terms of reducing demand for fossil energy sources. Some significant long term impacts of the pandemic occurred in second and third years (2021 and 2022) after its outbreak in 2019 rather than in first year (2020) like the penetration of other energy sources along with hydro and renewable ones in GPEC. Novelty of this research lies within the application of the equilibrium state feature of compositional Markov chain based prediction upon GPEC mix. The analysis into the past trends suggests the advancement towards a better global energy future comprising of cleaner fossil resources (mainly natural gas), along with nuclear, hydro and renewable ones in the long run.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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