Trend and projection of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Iran from 2001 to 2030.

Autor: Farzadfar F; Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Yousefi M; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada., Jafari-Khounigh A; Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran., Khorrami Z; Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center, Research Institute for Ophthalmology and Vision Science, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran., Haghdoost A; HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran., Shadmani FK; Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. Khosravishadman@gmail.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 Apr 06; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 8092. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 06.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58629-z
Abstrakt: This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be - 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were - 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of - 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001-2016 were - 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be - 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje