Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries.

Autor:	Kwon JA; Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Bretaña NA; University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia., Kronfli N; Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada.; McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada., Dussault C; Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada., Grant L; Corrective Services NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Galouzis J; Corrective Services NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Hoey W; Justice Health Forensic Mental Health Network NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Blogg J; Justice Health Forensic Mental Health Network NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Lloyd AR; Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Gray RT; Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2024 Mar 15; Vol. 12, pp. 1279572. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 15 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI:	10.3389/fpubh.2024.1279572
Abstrakt:	Introduction: Correctional facilities are high-priority settings for coordinated public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. These facilities are at high risk of disease transmission due to close contacts between people in prison and with the wider community. People in prison are also vulnerable to severe disease given their high burden of co-morbidities. Methods: We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the effect of various public health interventions, including vaccination, on the mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks, applying it to prisons in Australia and Canada. Results: We found that, in the absence of any intervention, an outbreak would occur and infect almost 100% of people in prison within 20 days of the index case. However, the rapid rollout of vaccines with other non-pharmaceutical interventions would almost eliminate the risk of an outbreak. Discussion: Our study highlights that high vaccination coverage is required for variants with high transmission probability to completely mitigate the outbreak risk in prisons. Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (Copyright © 2024 Kwon, Bretaña, Kronfli, Dussault, Grant, Galouzis, Hoey, Blogg, Lloyd and Gray.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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