Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century.

Autor: Bar S; School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO171BJ, UK., Acharya P; Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, 721101, West Bengal, India., Parida BR; Department of Geoinformatics, School of Natural Resource Management, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, 853222, India. bikash.parida@cuj.ac.in., Sannigrahi S; School of Architecture, Planning, and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, RichviewDublin, Clonskeagh, Ireland., Maiti A; Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, 721101, West Bengal, India., Barik G; Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, 721101, West Bengal, India., Kumar N; Department of Ecology and Natural Resources Management, Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, 53113, Bonn, Germany.; Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz Der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113, Bonn, Germany.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental science and pollution research international [Environ Sci Pollut Res Int] 2024 Sep; Vol. 31 (41), pp. 53839-53855. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 19.
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w
Abstrakt: The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001-2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km 2  year -1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km 2  year -1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km 2  year -1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically.
(© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: