Miss it like Messi: Extracting value from off-target shots in soccer.
| Autor: | Baron E; University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada., Sandholtz N; Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA., Pleuler D; Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, Toronto, ON, Canada., Chan TCY; Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Journal of quantitative analysis in sports [J Quant Anal Sports] 2024 Jan 01; Vol. 20 (1), pp. 37-50. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 01 (Print Publication: 2024). |
| DOI: | 10.1515/jqas-2022-0107 |
| Abstrakt: | Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics which better cope with these challenges. Specifically, metrics such as expected goals added, goals above expectation, and post-shot expected goals all use advanced data to offer an improvement over the classical conversion rate. However, all metrics developed to date assign a value of zero to off-target shots, which account for almost two-thirds of all shots, since these shots have no probability of scoring. We posit that there is non-negligible shooting skill signal contained in the trajectories of off-target shots and propose two shooting skill metrics that incorporate the signal contained in off-target shots. Specifically, we develop a player-specific generative model for shot trajectories based on a mixture of truncated bivariate Gaussian distributions. We use this generative model to compute metrics that allow us to attach non-zero value to off-target shots. We demonstrate that our proposed metrics are more stable than current state-of-the-art metrics and have increased predictive power. Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors state no conflict of interest. (© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston.) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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