Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast.

Autor: McNamara DE; Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA.; Center for Marine Science, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA., Smith MD; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. martin.smith@duke.edu.; Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. martin.smith@duke.edu., Williams Z; Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA.; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA., Gopalakrishnan S; Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA., Landry CE; Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Mar 12; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 2209. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 12.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46548-6
Abstrakt: Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. To understand this seeming paradox and explore policy responses, we develop the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) and analyze the long-term evolution of coastal real estate markets. C-HOM incorporates changing physical attributes of the coast, economic values of these attributes, and dynamic risks associated with storms and flooding. Resident owners, renters, and non-resident investors jointly determine coastal property values and the policy choices that influence the physical evolution of the coast. In the coupled system, we find that subsidies for coastal management, such as beach nourishment, tax advantages for high-income property owners, and stable or increasing property values outside the coastal zone all dampen the effects of SLR on coastal property values. The effects, however, are temporary and only delay precipitous declines as total inundation approaches. By removing subsidies, prices would more accurately reflect risks from SLR but also trigger more coastal gentrification, as relatively high-income owners enter the market and self-finance nourishment. Our results suggest a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions in coastal communities and allowing property markets to adjust smoothly to risks from climate change.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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