Development and external validation of a home-based risk predicTion modEl of natUral onseT of menopAuse -TEUTA.

Autor:	Kastrati L; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland., Vidal PM; Department of Medicine, internal medicine, Lausanne university hospital (CHUV) and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland., Dhana K; Department of Internal Medicine, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL., Bally L; Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland., Lambrinoudaki I; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 2nd Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Athens, Greece., Groothof D; Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, the Netherlands., Bakker SJL; Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, the Netherlands., Eisenga MF; Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, the Netherlands., Muka T; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.; Epistudia, 3011 Bern, Switzerland.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism [J Clin Endocrinol Metab] 2024 Mar 05. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 05.
DOI:	10.1210/clinem/dgae125
Abstrakt:	Objective: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors. Design: Population-based prospective cohort study. Participants: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study. Main Outcome Measure: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause. Model Development: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistic, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances. Results: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohort, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82. Conclusions: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed. (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu