What is China's efficient power generation portfolio under carbon neutrality target? An empirical analysis considering flexibility and system cost.

Autor: Xie BC; College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(CACMS), Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China., Wang QY; College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China., Tang Q; China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China., Zhang S; School of Economics and Management, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China. Electronic address: zhang_shuang1985@163.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of environmental management [J Environ Manage] 2024 Mar; Vol. 355, pp. 120311. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 02.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120311
Abstrakt: Variable renewable energy (VRE) is the most promising form of primary generation under a carbon neutrality target due to its environmental benefits, incentive policy, and technological progress. However, the increasing proportion of VRE generation, such as solar and wind power, has sharply increased integration cost and reduced power grid stability. This study uses portfolio theory to investigate China's optimal power generation portfolio by 2050 considering flexibility constraint and system cost, including technical and integration costs. The results demonstrate that non-fossil-fuel power generation technologies have cost and emission reduction advantages over fossil-fuel-based technologies. VRE generation technologies must be developed in synergy with other forms of power generation when considering flexibility requirement and integration cost. A complete phase-out of fossil-fuel power generation technologies in China appears unlikely in the study period. Gas-fired and coal-fired power generation are the pillar forms of power generation to meet future flexibility needs.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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