Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico.

Autor: Ortega MA; Instituto Mixto de Investigación en Biodiversidad (IMIB-CSIC), Mieres, Spain.; Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Madrid, Spain., Cayuela L; Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain., Griffith DM; Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, EcoSs Lab, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador., Camacho A; Universidad Intercultural de Chiapas, Corral de Piedra, Mexico., Coronado IM; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, UNAN-León, León, Nicaragua., Del Castillo RF; Instituto Politécnico Nacional, CIIDIR Oaxaca, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán, Oaxaca, Mexico., Figueroa-Rangel BL; Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico., Fonseca W; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Costa Rica, Santa Lucía, Barva, Heredia, Costa Rica., Garibaldi C; Departmento de Botánica, Universidad de Panamá, Campus Universitario Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá, República de Panamá., Kelly DL; Department of Botany, Trinity College, University of Dublin, Dublin, Ireland., Letcher SG; College of the Atlantic, Bar Harbor, Maine, United States of America., Meave JA; Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico., Merino-Martín L; Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain., Meza VH; Instituto de Investigación y Servicios Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Campus Omar Dengo, Heredia, Costa Rica., Ochoa-Gaona S; El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Campeche, Lerma, Campeche, Mexico., Olvera-Vargas M; Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, Mexico., Ramírez-Marcial N; El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico., Tun-Dzul FJ; Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, Chuburna de Hidalgo, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico., Valdez-Hernández M; Herbario, Departamento Conservación de la Biodiversidad, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Chetumal, Mexico., Velázquez E; Departamento de Producción Vegetal y Recursos Forestales, Instituto Universitario de Gestión Forestal Sostenible, Universidad de Valladolid (Campus de Palencia), Palencia, Spain., White DA; Emeritus Faculty, Program in the Environment, Loyola University, New Orleans, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America., Williams-Linera G; Instituto de Ecología, A.C. (INECOL), Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico., Zahawi RA; Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galápagos, Ecuador., Muñoz J; Real Jardín Botánico (RJB-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2024 Feb 29; Vol. 19 (2), pp. e0297840. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 29 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297840
Abstrakt: Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Ortega et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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