Development and validation of a simplified risk prediction model for preterm birth: a prospective cohort study in rural Ethiopia.

Autor: Kassahun EA; Department of Family Medicine & Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. Eskeziaw02@gmail.com., Gebreyesus SH; Departmentof of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Tesfamariam K; Department of Food Technology, Safety, and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium., Endris BS; Departmentof of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Roro MA; Department of Reproductive Health and Health Service Management, School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Getnet Y; Departmentof of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia., Hassen HY; Department of Family Medicine & Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium., Brusselaers N; Global Health Institute, Department of Family Medicine & Population Health, Antwerp University, Antwerp, Belgium.; Centre for Translational Microbiome Research, Department of Microbiology, Tumour and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden., Coenen S; Centre for General Practice, Department of Family Medicine & Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, 2000, Antwerp, Belgium.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 Feb 28; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 4845. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 28.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55627-z
Abstrakt: Preterm birth is one of the most common obstetric complications in low- and middle-income countries, where access to advanced diagnostic tests and imaging is limited. Therefore, we developed and validated a simplified risk prediction tool to predict preterm birth based on easily applicable and routinely collected characteristics of pregnant women in the primary care setting. We used a logistic regression model to develop a model based on the data collected from 481 pregnant women. Model accuracy was evaluated through discrimination (measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (via calibration graphs and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test). Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping technique. A simplified risk score was developed, and the cut-off point was determined using the "Youden index" to classify pregnant women into high or low risk for preterm birth. The incidence of preterm birth was 19.5% (95% CI:16.2, 23.3) of pregnancies. The final prediction model incorporated mid-upper arm circumference, gravidity, history of abortion, antenatal care, comorbidity, intimate partner violence, and anemia as predictors of preeclampsia. The AUC of the model was 0.687 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.75). The calibration plot demonstrated a good calibration with a p-value of 0.713 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model can identify pregnant women at high risk of preterm birth. It is applicable in daily clinical practice and could contribute to the improvement of the health of women and newborns in primary care settings with limited resources. Healthcare providers in rural areas could use this prediction model to improve clinical decision-making and reduce obstetrics complications.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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