Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.

Autor: Chen K; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu.; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu., de Schrijver E; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Sivaraj S; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland., Sera F; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy., Scovronick N; Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health. Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Jiang L; Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China.; Population Council, New York, NY, USA., Roye D; Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain.; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain., Lavigne E; Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.; School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Kyselý J; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Urban A; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic., Schneider A; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany., Huber V; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany.; Chair of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany., Madureira J; Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal.; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal., Mistry MN; Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy., Cvijanovic I; ISGlobal - Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain., Gasparrini A; Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Feb 27; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 1796. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 27.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
Abstrakt: Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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