Between victory and peace: Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts.

Autor: Shani M; Department of Developmental Psychology, Osnabrück University, Osnabruck, Germany.; Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel., Kunst JR; Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Anjum G; Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway., Obaidi M; Center for Research on Extremism (C-REX), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.; Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark., Leshem OA; Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.; Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.; Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution, George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia, USA., Antonovsky R; Independent Researcher, Atlit, Israel., van Zalk M; Department of Developmental Psychology, Osnabrück University, Osnabruck, Germany., Halperin E; Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The British journal of social psychology [Br J Soc Psychol] 2024 Jul; Vol. 63 (3), pp. 1357-1384. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 20.
DOI: 10.1111/bjso.12722
Abstrakt: Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan-India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel-Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.
(© 2024 The Authors. British Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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