Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface.

Autor: Smedley PL; British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK. Electronic address: pls@bgs.ac.uk., Allen G; Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Simon Building, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK., Baptie BJ; British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, UK., Fraser-Harris AP; School of Geosciences, King's Buildings, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK., Ward RS; British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK., Chambers RM; School of Geosciences, King's Buildings, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK., Gilfillan SMV; School of Geosciences, King's Buildings, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK., Hall JA; School of Engineering, Drummond Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK., Hughes AG; British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK., Manning DAC; School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK., McDermott CI; School of Geosciences, King's Buildings, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK., Nagheli S; British Geological Survey, Nicker Hill, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK., Shaw JT; Department of Earth & Environmental Science, Simon Building, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK; Now at: National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington, Middlesex TW11 0LW, UK., Werner MJ; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK., Worrall F; Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Stockton Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Apr 15; Vol. 921, pp. 171036. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 17.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171036
Abstrakt: findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH 4 ). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane. The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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