Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

Autor: Flores BM; Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. mflores.bernardo@gmail.com., Montoya E; Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain., Sakschewski B; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Nascimento N; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Staal A; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Betts RA; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK., Levis C; Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil., Lapola DM; Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil., Esquível-Muelbert A; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.; Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK., Jakovac C; Department of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil., Nobre CA; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Oliveira RS; Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil., Borma LS; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil., Nian D; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Boers N; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.; Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany., Hecht SB; Luskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA., Ter Steege H; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.; Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Arieira J; Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil., Lucas IL; Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, NY, USA., Berenguer E; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Marengo JA; Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil.; Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, UNESP/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil.; Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Korea., Gatti LV; Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil., Mattos CRC; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA., Hirota M; Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com.; Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com.; Group IpES, Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature [Nature] 2024 Feb; Vol. 626 (7999), pp. 555-564. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 14.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
Abstrakt: The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1-3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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