Estimating infection prevalence using the positive predictive value of self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests: An exploration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data in the Netherlands from May 2021 to April 2022.

Autor: Gorgels KMF; Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.; Department of Sexual Health, Infectious Diseases and Environmental Health, Living Lab Public Health, South Limburg Public Health Service, Heerlen, The Netherlands.; Department of Social Medicine, Care and Public Health Research Institute (CAPHRI), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands., van Iersel SCJL; Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Keijser SFA; Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Hoebe CJPA; Department of Sexual Health, Infectious Diseases and Environmental Health, Living Lab Public Health, South Limburg Public Health Service, Heerlen, The Netherlands.; Department of Social Medicine, Care and Public Health Research Institute (CAPHRI), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.; Department of Medical Microbiology, Infectious Diseases and Infection Prevention, Care and Public Health Research Institute (CAPHRI), Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC+), Maastricht, The Netherlands., Wallinga J; Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands., van Hoek AJ; Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2024 Feb 13; Vol. 19 (2), pp. e0298218. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 13 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298218
Abstrakt: Measuring the severity of the disease of SARS-CoV-2 is complicated by the lack of valid estimations for the prevalence of infection. Self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) were available in the Netherlands since March 2021, requiring confirmation by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for positive results. We explored the possibility of utilizing the positive predictive value (PPV) of Ag-RDTs to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. We used data from all Public Health service testing facilities between 3 May 2021 and 10 April 2022. The PPV was calculated by dividing the number of positive RT-PCR results by the total number of confirmation tests performed, and used to estimate the prevalence and compared with the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions. In total 3,599,894 cases were included. The overall PPV was 91.8% and 88.8% were symptomatic. During our study period, the estimated prevalence ranged between 2-22% in symptomatic individuals and 2-14% in asymptomatic individuals, with a correlation between the estimated prevalence and hospital admissions two weeks later (r = 0.68 (p<0.01) and r = 0.60 (p<0.01) for symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals). The PPV of Ag-RDTs can help estimate changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, especially when used in conjunction with other surveillance systems. However, the used method probably overestimated the true prevalence because of unmonitored differences in test propensity between individuals.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Gorgels et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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