Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

Autor: Katzelnick LC; Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America., Quentin E; Centro de Investigación en Salud Pública y Epidemiología Clínica (CISPEC), Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud Eugenio Espejo, Universidad UTE, Quito, Ecuador., Colston S; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America., Ha TA; Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America., Andrade P; Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America., Eisenberg JNS; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America., Ponce P; Centro de Investigación en Enfermedades Infeciosas y Vectoriales (CIREV), Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (INSPI), Quito, Ecuador., Coloma J; Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America., Cevallos V; Centro de Investigación en Enfermedades Infeciosas y Vectoriales (CIREV), Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (INSPI), Quito, Ecuador.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2024 Jan 31; Vol. 18 (1), pp. e0011408. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 31 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011408
Abstrakt: The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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