Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation.

Autor: Gerber JS; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA. jsgerber@umn.edu.; Project Drawdown, . jsgerber@umn.edu., Ray DK; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA., Makowski D; Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Palaiseau, France., Butler EE; Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA., Mueller ND; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA., West PC; Project Drawdown.; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA., Johnson JA; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA., Polasky S; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA., Samberg LH; Rainforest Alliance., Siebert S; Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany., Sloat L; World Resources Institute, Washington DC, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature food [Nat Food] 2024 Feb; Vol. 5 (2), pp. 125-135. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 26.
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00913-8
Abstrakt: Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of 'steady growth' in actual and attainable yields, 'stalled floor' where yield is stagnated and 'ceiling pressure' where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing 'steady growth', in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing 'ceiling pressure'. We show that 'ceiling pressure' correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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