Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.

Autor: He Y; Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, PR China. Electronic address: heyong01@caas.cn., Xiong W; Sustainable Agrifood System, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Texcoco 56237, Mexico. Electronic address: w.xiong@cgiar.org., Hu P; Agriculture and Food, CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, ACT, Australia; School of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia. Electronic address: pengcheng.hu@csiro.au., Huang D; Aquatic and Crop Resource Development, National Research Council of Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 0W9, Canada. Electronic address: daiqing.huang@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca., Feurtado JA; Aquatic and Crop Resource Development, National Research Council of Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 0W9, Canada. Electronic address: allan.feurtado@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca., Zhang T; State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China. Electronic address: zhangty@mail.iap.ac.cn., Hao C; Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, PR China. Electronic address: haochenyang@caas.cn., DePauw R; Advancing Wheat Technologies, 118 Strathcona Rd SW, Calgary, Alberta T3H 1P3, Canada., Zheng B; Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Queensland 4067, Australia. Electronic address: bangyou.zheng@csiro.au., Hoogenboom G; Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 110570, USA. Electronic address: gerrit@ufl.edu., Dixon LE; School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom. Electronic address: l.dixon2@leeds.ac.uk., Wang H; HW Eco Research Group, Fleetwood Postal Outlet, Surrey V4N 9E9, Canada., Challinor AJ; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom. Electronic address: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Mar 20; Vol. 917, pp. 170305. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 24.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170305
Abstrakt: The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors do not declare any competing interests.
(Crown Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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