Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics.

Autor: Tabo Z; Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany.; Department of Landscape Ecology and Resource Management, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany., Kalinda C; Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany.; Bill and Joyce Cummings Institute of Global Health, University of Global Health Equity | Kigali Heights, Plot 772 KG 7 Ave. PO Box 6955, Kigali, Rwanda., Breuer L; Department of Landscape Ecology and Resource Management, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany.; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 3, 35390 Giessen, Germany., Albrecht C; Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Infectious Disease Modelling [Infect Dis Model] 2023 Dec 22; Vol. 9 (1), pp. 158-176. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 22 (Print Publication: 2024).
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.003
Abstrakt: Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 °C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 °C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(© 2023 The Authors.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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