Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil.

Autor: Pinotti F; Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. francesco.pinotti@biology.ox.ac.uk., Giovanetti M; Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.; Instituto Rene Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.; Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health, University of Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy., de Lima MM; Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil., de Cerqueira EM; Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil., Alcantara LCJ; Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.; Instituto Rene Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil., Gupta S; Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom., Recker M; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom.; Institute for Tropical Medicine, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany., Lourenço J; Católica Biomedical Research, Católica Medical School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Jan 20; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 632. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 20.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-44799-x
Abstrakt: In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: