Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

Autor: de Jong SPJ; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Felix Garza ZC; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Gibson JC; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., van Leeuwen S; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., de Vries RP; Department of Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands., Boons GJ; Department of Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.; Complex Carbohydrate Research Center, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.; Bijvoet Center for Biomolecular Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.; Department of Chemistry, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA., van Hoesel M; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., de Haan K; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., van Groeningen LE; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Hulme KD; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., van Willigen HDG; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Wynberg E; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., de Bree GJ; Department of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Matser A; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Bakker M; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., van der Hoek L; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Prins M; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Department of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Kootstra NA; Department of Experimental Immunology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Eggink D; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands., Nichols BE; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA., Han AX; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., de Jong MD; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Russell CA; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. c.a.russell@amsterdamumc.nl.; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA. c.a.russell@amsterdamumc.nl.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Jan 18; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 591. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 18.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44668-z
Abstrakt: During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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