Coastal evolution and future projections in Conde County, Brazil: A multi-decadal assessment via remote sensing and sea-level rise scenarios.

Autor: Santos CAG; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil. Electronic address: celso@ct.ufpb.br., do Nascimento GR; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil., Freitas LMT; Department of Computer Systems, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil., Batista LV; Department of Computer Systems, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil., Zerouali B; Vegetal Chemistry-Water-Energy Laboratory, Department of Hydraulic, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Hassiba Benbouali, University of Chlef, B.P. 78C, Ouled Fares 02180, Chlef, Algeria., Mishra M; Department of Geography, Fakir Mohan University, Vyasa Vihar, Nuapadhi, Balasore 756089, Odisha, India., Silva RMD; Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Mar 10; Vol. 915, pp. 169829. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 10.
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169829
Abstrakt: Global sea levels, having risen by approximately 20 cm since the mid-19th century, necessitate a critical examination of their impacts on shoreline dynamics. This research evaluates the historical (1985-2022) and future shoreline changes in Conde County, Paraíba State, Brazil, an area of significant touristic interest. Employing Landsat satellite imagery, the study utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and a Kalman filter algorithm for cloud removal, while also assessing land use and land cover changes using data from the MapBiomas Project for 2000, 2010, and 2020. These analyses informed projections of potential inundation under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. Key findings revealed a negative average coastline change rate of -0.27 m/year from 1985 to 2022, indicative of erosive trends likely accelerated by human activities. Long-term projections for 2032 and 2042 anticipate continued erosion in areas identified as highly vulnerable. The SLR scenario analysis underscores the urgent need for adaptive climate measures; while a 1- or 2-meter SLR presents limited immediate effects, a 5-meter rise could lead to significant inundation across key sectors, including urban and agricultural landscapes. The projected severity of a 10-meter SLR necessitates immediate, comprehensive interventions to safeguard both natural and human systems.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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