Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study.

Autor:	Zardini A; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy., Menegale F; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy., Gobbi A; Digital Industry Center, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy., Manica M; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy., Guzzetta G; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy., d'Andrea V; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy., Marziano V; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy., Trentini F; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy., Montarsi F; Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy., Caputo B; Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy., Solimini A; Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy., Marques-Toledo C; Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil., Wilke ABB; Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA., Rosà R; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy; Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Marini G; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Arnoldi D; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Pastore Y Piontti A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Pugliese A; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy., Capelli G; Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy., Della Torre A; Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy., Teixeira MM; Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil., Beier JC; Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Rizzoli A; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Vespignani A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Ajelli M; Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA., Merler S; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy., Poletti P; Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy. Electronic address: poletti@fbk.eu.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The Lancet. Planetary health [Lancet Planet Health] 2024 Jan; Vol. 8 (1), pp. e30-e40.
DOI:	10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00252-8
Abstrakt:	Background: Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. Methods: We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. Findings: In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R 0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). Interpretation: Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. Funding: EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests MA has received research funding from Seqirus. The funding is related to influenza vaccination in Italy and thus not related to this manuscript. All other authors declare no competing interests. (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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