Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Autor: Mathis SM; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA., Webber AE; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA., León TM; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899., Murray EL; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899., Sun M; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899., White LA; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 95899., Brooks LC; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720., Green A; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213., Hu AJ; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213., McDonald DJ; University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada., Rosenfeld R; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213., Shemetov D; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213., Tibshirani RJ; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213.; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720., Kandula S; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 0213 Oslo, Norway., Pei S; Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032., Shaman J; Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032.; Columbia University School of Climate, New York, NY 10025., Yaari R; Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032., Yamana TK; Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032., Agarwal P; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Balusu S; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Gururajan G; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Kamarthi H; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Prakash BA; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Raman R; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Rodríguez A; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109., Zhao Z; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30318., Meiyappan A; Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean VA, 22102., Omar S; Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean VA, 22102., Baccam P; IEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015., Gurung HL; IEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015., Stage SA; IEM, Baton Rouge, LA, 70809., Suchoski BT; IEM, Bel Air, MD, 21015., Ajelli M; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405., Kummer AG; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405., Litvinova M; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405., Ventura PC; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, 47405., Wadsworth S; Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011., Niemi J; Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011., Carcelen E; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., Hill AL; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., Jung SM; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC., Lemaitre JC; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC., Lessler J; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC., Loo SL; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., McKee CD; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., Sato K; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., Smith C; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., Truelove S; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205., McAndrew T; Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015., Ye W; Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015., Bosse N; London School of Health and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, WC1E 7HT., Hlavacek WS; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545., Lin YT; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545., Mallela A; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545., Chen Y; Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011., Lamm SM; Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011., Lee J; Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011., Posner RG; Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011., Perofsky AC; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20892., Viboud C; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20892., Clemente L; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Lu F; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Meyer AG; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Santillana M; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Chinazzi M; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Davis JT; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Mu K; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Piontti APY; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Vespignani A; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Xiong X; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115., Ben-Nun M; Predictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121., Riley P; Predictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121., Turtle J; Predictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA 92121., Hulme-Lowe C; Signature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, 78759., Jessa S; Signature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, 78759., Nagraj VP; Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911., Turner SD; Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911., Williams D; Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, 22911., Basu A; University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602., Drake JM; University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602., Fox SJ; University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30609., Gibson GC; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545., Suez E; University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30609., Thommes EW; University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.; Sanofi, Toronto, ON, M2R 3T4., Cojocaru MG; University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada., Cramer EY; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Gerding A; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Stark A; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Ray EL; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Reich NG; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Shandross L; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Wattanachit N; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Wang Y; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Zorn MW; University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003., Al Aawar M; University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089., Srivastava A; University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089., Meyers LA; University of Texas Austin, Austin, TX, 78712., Adiga A; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Hurt B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Kaur G; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Lewis BL; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Marathe M; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Venkatramanan S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903., Butler P; Virginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203., Farabow A; Virginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203., Muralidhar N; Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, 07030., Ramakrishnan N; Virginia Tech, Arlington, VA 22203., Reed C; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA., Biggerstaff M; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA., Borchering RK; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30329, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2023 Dec 11. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 11.
DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.08.23299726
Abstrakt: Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2 nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5 th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degraded over longer forecast horizons and during periods of rapid change. Current influenza forecasting efforts help inform situational awareness, but research is needed to address limitations, including decreased performance during periods of changing epidemic dynamics.
Competing Interests: Competing interests: E.W.T. is an employee of Sanofi, which manufactures influenza vaccines. J.S. and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. J.S. discloses consulting for BNI.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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