Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity.

Autor:	Saulsbury JG; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo 0187, Norway.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045., Parins-Fukuchi CT; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada., Wilson CJ; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo 0187, Norway.; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721., Reitan T; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo 0187, Norway.; Center for Planetary Habitability, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo 0371, Norway., Liow LH; Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo 0187, Norway.; Center for Planetary Habitability, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo 0371, Norway.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2024 Jan 02; Vol. 121 (1), pp. e2307629121. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 27.
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2307629121
Abstrakt:	Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age. Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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