The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada.

Autor:	Varela-Lasheras I; Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Carcavelos, Portugal., Perfeito L; LIP, Laboratório de Instrumentação e Física Experimental de Partículas, Lisbon, Portugal., Mesquita S; LIP, Laboratório de Instrumentação e Física Experimental de Partículas, Lisbon, Portugal.; Nova Medical School, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal., Gonçalves-Sá J; Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Carcavelos, Portugal.; LIP, Laboratório de Instrumentação e Física Experimental de Partículas, Lisbon, Portugal.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	PLOS digital health [PLOS Digit Health] 2023 Dec 21; Vol. 2 (12), pp. e0000405. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 21 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pdig.0000405
Abstrakt:	The flu season is caused by a combination of different pathogens, including influenza viruses (IVS), that cause the flu, and non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs), that cause common colds or influenza-like illness. These viruses exhibit similar dynamics and meteorological conditions have historically been regarded as a principal modulator of their epidemiology, with outbreaks in the winter and almost no circulation during the summer, in temperate regions. However, after the emergence of SARS-CoV2, in late 2019, the dynamics of these respiratory viruses were strongly perturbed worldwide: some infections displayed near-eradication, while others experienced temporal shifts or occurred "off-season". This disruption raised questions regarding the dominant role of weather while also providing an unique opportunity to investigate the roles of different determinants on the epidemiological dynamics of IVs and NIRVs. Here, we employ statistical analysis and modelling to test the effects of weather and mobility in viral dynamics, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging epidemiological surveillance data on several respiratory viruses, from Canada and the USA, from 2016 to 2023, we found that whereas in the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, weather had a strong effect, in the pandemic period the effect of weather was strongly reduced and mobility played a more relevant role. These results, together with previous studies, indicate that behavioral changes resulting from the non-pharmacological interventions implemented to control SARS-CoV2, interfered with the dynamics of other respiratory viruses, and that the past dynamical equilibrium was disturbed, and perhaps permanently altered, by the COVID-19 pandemic. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. (Copyright: © 2023 Varela-Lasheras et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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