Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa.

Autor: Ngarega BK; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.; Sino-Africa Joint Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China., Chaibva P; Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Midlands State University, Bag 9055, Gweru, Zimbabwe., Masocha VF; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China. masocha@xtbg.ac.cn., Saina JK; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China., Khine PK; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China., Schneider H; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental monitoring and assessment [Environ Monit Assess] 2023 Dec 19; Vol. 196 (1), pp. 62. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 19.
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12232-3
Abstrakt: Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica's distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km 2 . Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change.
(© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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