Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes.

Autor: Brodie S; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA. steph.brodie@csiro.au.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA. steph.brodie@csiro.au.; Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. steph.brodie@csiro.au., Pozo Buil M; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Welch H; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Bograd SJ; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Hazen EL; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Santora JA; Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.; Department of Applied Math, University of California, 1156, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Seary R; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA.; Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Schroeder ID; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Jacox MG; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA.; Physical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratories, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2023 Dec 05; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 7701. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 05.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0
Abstrakt: Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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